Consideration of the Irish Independent/Millward Brown IMS Poll

Today the Irish Independent and Millward Brown published their IMS Poll results.

To say that it is devastating to the government and Fianna Fail is an understatement. However, given the current economic situation and its mismanagement I'm sure it comes to no one's surprise that;

- 86pc don't rate the Government
- 72pc don't rate the Taoiseach
- FF support has plummeted to 25pc

What needs real examination is who are the winners in this collapse in Fianna Fail Support.

First let's examine the parties positions relative to the last election.

Fianna Gael 30% (up 2%)
Fianna Fail 25% (down 17%)
Labour 22% (up 12%)
Independents 10% (up 4%)
Sinn Fein 7% (no change)
Greens 5% (no change)

Obviously FF are getting a kicking but surprisingly the Greens holding steady, with Labour being seen as the people's representative (and I'll come back to this) getting most of the gains.

What is of particular interest is how little FG have increased. Now a large amount of this can be put down to Enda Kenny's poor approval rating (behind Gilmore, and Cowen) in relation to his ability to manage our way out of this economic crisis. However, this alone does not explain it...I honestly believe that most people when they look at FG and FF find it very difficult to see a real difference between them. In terms of policy position they are both centre-right, are funded by similar industry sectors, and other than ye olde treaty politics have little between them! I believe that consciously and unconsciously people are coming to this realisation.

Labour have made big gains, but I think everyone needs to be 100% clear on something here. Labour are here to represent the wishes and goals of the workers, and in particular unionised workers, even if that manifests itself in policies that will damage the economy.

We all need to be aware that Gilmore has been completely lacking on specifics on how to solve this economic problem, is unwilling to set out what tough decisions he would take, particularly in relation to the Public Sector yet despite this the Labour Party leader has persuaded the public that he can be trusted to manage the economy.

Finally, the poll shows that there is a 52% of people would like to see an election, I am not sure that this is such a great idea. Based on the above you will either get a Labour - FG or FF coalition OR as an outside bet FF&FG coalition. The first option is an obvious one as with the idea for a national government is highly flawed. You will have a pair of partners, one with business and private enterprise at its core, trying to meet in the middle with a group focused on protecting unions etc. In short to vote this option in can only lead to more of the same as a coalition will not make ANY of the tough decisions.

As for option 2, how could this possibly be? Firstly, from a policy position there is very very little between FG and FF. They are both Centre right parties and as such may be able to make some of the tough decisions out there. Secondly this poll shows that the era of "treaty politics" is coming to a close with over 50% of those who voted for FF in the last election saying that they would not do so in the future. The natural home for those votes (treaty politics aside) is FG.

Unfortunately none of the above inspire me with hope :(

RB